The following
government prices are good through next Thursday, May 15th: AWP 57.77
(-0.70) and Pima Competitiveness Payment 5.89 (+0.15).
There were 5 Cotton Notices issued today bring the total to date 3,010.
The only issuer was Goldman-5 and the only stopper was Newedge-5.
May’08 open interest this morning before the notices was 310 contracts,
down 70. July’08 open interest was 124,719 contracts, down 33. Dec’08 open
interest was 102,141 contracts, down 63. Total open interest was 248,842
contracts, up 536. Certificated stocks total 1,335,293 bales, up 32,382
bales from the previous report. There were 118,254 bales awaiting review.
The 2007/08 North European A-Index was up 50 points at 75.95 and the
B-Index remains unquoted. The Far Eastern A-Index was also up 50 points at
74.25
At 8:15AM July was trading at 71.40. July had opened this morning at
70.85. July’s current low was its opening price and its current high is
71.65 made around 7.56AM. Some large offers (about 600 lots) appeared at
this level and this finally backed the market off. The market had been
steadily rising during the early morning hours. On this move down July
reached 71.11. At the time of the release of the USDA US and World
Supply/Demand Reports (full details of all this morning’s reports can be
found at another section of our web site), July was trading at 71.30. Some
good buying then entered the market and pushed July back up to 71.60. This
move took out some of the heavy selling at this level. Unable to make new
highs, some profit taking pushed July back down to 71.39. Then another
surge of buying rallied July up to its earlier high of 71.65 and took out
about 500 lots that were still offered around this level. July still was
unable to make a new high but July only backed off about 10 to 15 points.
At around 9:18AM July was able to inch through 71.65 and on up to
71.69(+84). In other markets, Crude Oil traded to another record high of
$125.98 up $2.29. The Dollar was weak, down about 26 points per the Dollar
Index. In Chicago the electronic grain markets ended their early morning
session with Soybeans 15 ¾ cents, Corn up 8 ¾ cents, and Wheat 16 ½ cents.
July trading then turned sideways as July chopped mostly between 71.65 and
71.50. Around 9:30AM, July extended this range to a new high of
71.70(+85). Trading had turned lighter and the market is probably waiting
on the opening of the Chicago grain markets to make its next move.
However, our market did not wait for Chicago. Little after 10:00AM another
strong surge in buying pushed July through 71.70 and on up to a new high
of 72.25(+140). At 10:30AM July was trading around 71.98. Soybeans opened
35 to 40 points higher and Corn opened 5 to 7 cents higher. This sparked
July to move back up to 72.16. Around 10:38AM July came under some heavy
profit taking and new selling which sent July back under 72.00 and then
collapsing down to 71.22. July held this level and then rebounded back up
to 71.64. Today’s report helped July’s rally but it also helped the
July/Dec straddle to widen out to 868 points. With weakening grains
prices, July came under some additional selling which pushed July down to
71.01. There were about 175 Julys wanted around 71.00. This was helping to
hold July at this level so far. Around 11:35AM most of the Julys at 71.00
were taken out, but July continued to hold this level. Some short covering
then lifted July back up to 71.20. About 10 minutes later July finally
broke under 71.00 and then traded down to a new low for the day at
70.54(-31.). The break under 71.00 had touched off some Spec sell stops.
July’s erratic trading continued with July bouncing back over 71.00 and
then crept on up to 71.42. A recovery of about 10 cents in soybeans helped
to bring this buying back to our market. July then chopped mostly between
71.40 and 71.00. Each up and down movement seemed to follow Soybeans
movements. Around 12:45PM, July moved out of this pattern to the up side
with the continued help of the improving grain prices. July charged up to
71.94. This level was hit around 1:15PM. About 30 minutes later July came
under some selling pressure and fell to 71.35. During the one minute
settlement period July chopped erratically between 71.73 and 71.48. July
then traded up to 71.84. July’s last tick of the session was at 71.62.
July closed firm, settling at 71.55(+70). Dec closed 868 points over July,
settling at 80.23(+88). Today’s estimated volume was 19,500. Previous
day’s volume was 11,795.
|
Daily Moving Averages: |
July |
Dec |
| 3 Day Average |
70.92 |
79.48 |
| 7 Day Average |
70.18 |
78.59 |
| 21 Day Average |
72.92 |
81.18 |
| 40 Day Average |
74.37 |
81.78 |
| 50 Day Average |
76.54 |
83.37 |
| 100 Day Average |
74.66 |
80.31 |
| |
|
|
| RSI: |
47.5 |
50.8 |
|
Contract |
High |
Low |
Previous |
Close |
Change |
| May '08 |
72.25 |
70.54 |
70.85 |
71.55 |
+70 |
| July '08 |
77.60 |
76.58 |
76.38 |
77.15 |
+77 |
| Oct '08 |
80.73 |
79.20 |
79.35 |
80.23 |
+88 |
| Dec '08 |
84.97 |
84.00 |
83.67 |
84.57 |
+90 |
| Mar '09 |
86.37 |
85.46 |
85.08 |
85.96 |
+88 |
| May '09 |
87.45 |
86.65 |
86.19 |
87.16 |
+97 |
| July '09 |
90.00 |
90.00 |
87.09 |
88.06 |
+97 |
| Oct '09 |
89.00 |
88.00 |
87.76 |
88.81 |
+105 |
| Dec '09 |
---- |
---- |
89.54 |
90.46 |
+92 |
| Mar '10 |
91.00 |
90.50 |
90.34 |
91.06 |
+72 |
