USDA’s Cotton Crop Progress Report for the week ending
May 5th showed that 26% of the cotton crop has been planted compared the
previous week’s 19%, the previous year’s 28% and the 5 year average of
32%.
There were 1,000 Cotton Notices issued this morning bring the total to
date 2,807. There was only one Issuer, Term-1000. The stoppers were
ADM-52, Citigroup-31, and Newedge-917.
May’08 open interest this morning, before the notices, was 1,537
contracts, down 65. Yesterday the only trade in May’08 was a bock trade of
1,000 lots. July’08 open interest was 125,119 contracts, down 243. Dec’08
open interest was 100,912 contracts, up 208. Total open interest was
247,805 contracts, up 87. Certificated stocks total 1,248,887 bales, up
16,864 bales from the previous report. There were 151,796 bales awaiting
review. The 2007/08 North European A-Index was unchanged at 74.80 and the
B-Index remains unquoted. The Far Eastern A-Index also unchanged at 72.90.
At 8:15AM as the option pit opened, July was trading around 69.24. July
opened this morning at 69.26 and a few minutes later made its current low
of 69.21. July made its current high of 69.61(+32) at around 4:05AM. July
then staged a rally up to with in on point of its earlier high of 69.61.
July stalled at this level and then steadily moved lower. Around 9:30AM
July broke below 69.00 and then traded down to a new low of 68.92(-37).
However, July quickly rebounded back over 69.00 and then traded on up to
69.19. Then a large bid of about 729 July at 69.00 hit the screen. This
caused additional buying and short covering which rallied July up to
69.45. As the Chicago grains markets opened at 10:30AM, July was trading
at 69.41. Chicago grains opened firm with Soybeans up 18 to 22 cents
higher and Corn up 12 to 15 cents higher. Strength in Crude Oil which hit
another record high of $122.00 (+$2.03) and a very weak Dollar which was
down about 35 points per the Dollar Index were pushing other commodities
higher this morning. In our own market, July finally took off to the
upside, trading up to a new high of 69.76(+47). At this level July stalled
and then chopped between 69.75 and 69.55 even though Soybeans and Corn
were still sailing higher (Soybeans +32 and Corn +19). Around 10:50AM,
July broke out of this range to the top side and with good buying July was
propelled over 70.00 and on up to a new high of 70.98(+169). This level
was reached around 11:45AM. When July moved through 70.00, good number of
Spec stop loss orders was touched off. July then started a gradual move
lower. On this move July had traded down to 70.19 which was reached around
12:45PM. July then chopped sideways mostly between 70.20 and 70.55. Around
1:45PM July took a spurt up to 70.73. At this same time Soybeans had sold
off and were only up 12 to 15 cents. By 2:10PM Soybeans were trading down
about 5 cents on the day. July continued to hold at around 70.50. During
the one minute settlement period July chopped from 70.50 down to around
70.27. July’s last tick of the day was at 70.33. The July/Dec straddle was
a lot more active today, trading about 3,335 times, and ranging from 811
out to 857 points. July closed firm, settling at 70.36(+107). May was
closed 225 points under July, settling at 68.11(+132). Dec was settled at
78.89(+138). Estimated volume for today was 16,300 contracts. Previous
day’s volume was 9,203 contracts. Tomorrow is the Last Trading Day for the
May’08 contract and goes off the board at the end of tomorrow’s session.
|
Daily Moving Averages: |
July |
Dec |
| 3 Day Average |
69.74 |
78.08 |
| 7 Day Average |
70.26 |
78.65 |
| 21 Day Average |
73.78 |
81.85 |
| 40 Day Average |
75.33 |
82.48 |
| 50 Day Average |
77.12 |
83.67 |
| 100 Day Average |
74.57 |
80.10 |
| |
|
|
| RSI: |
37.6 |
40.7 |
